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OPINION: Open Mike
By Mike McCarron
Trucking Trumped
by Trump
On Nov. 5, I was glued to the U.S. news channels watching
the election unfold. Leading up to the last day of voting,
I wasn’t bullish on either candidate. In the end, I settled
on Trump. I believe his pro-business ­ narrative will be a big boost
for North American trucking. Many people I spoke with in our
industry shared my disdain for both candidates. But, unlike
me, they were rooting for Harris. They thought Trump’s “Buy
America” protectionist rhetoric would be a kick in the teeth for
Canadian truckers. Since that fateful day, I’ve been scouring
Flipboard for the facts about how Trump’s triumphant return
might impact your fleet. Here are a few things to watch.
Tariff trouble
During his campaign sideshow, Trump blabbered on non-stop
about a 20% tariff on all imported goods. No one doubts the
potential impact on the Canadian economy. In October, TD
Economics reported that full-scale tariff implementation could
reduce exports to the U.S. by 5%. That’s $180 million less freight
heading south every day. But Trump is a world-class exagger-
ator. In his first term as prez, he sent shivers down truckers’
spines when he threatened 30% tariffs on auto exports. In the
end, it was all ‘blah-blah-blah’ because nothing changed.
Most experts, including TD Economics, say the more proba-
ble scenario is a 10% tariff sometime in 2027. Before then, expect
Trump to renegotiate the USMCA free trade agreement when it’s
up for review in 2026. Massive pivots in trade policy are hard to
implement, especially when two countries are so ­ economically
integrated. There will be lots of change and unpredictability in
the months ahead, but on trade, there’s time to adapt.
Immigration woes
Trump is adamant about stricter immigration policies, sealing
U.S. borders, and mass deportations. This is a real concern of
mine. Like in 2017, a clampdown in the U.S. would send immi-
grants and asylum seekers scurrying to our porous borders.
It would cause chaos. Overwhelm our systems. More import-
ant, it would further expose our industry’s driver labor under-
belly. The last thing we need is more migrant workers looking
for gig economy opportunities in Canada’s trucking industry.
Costs up or down?
We’ve already seen higher tariffs on Chinese imports increase
the price of trucks, vehicle parts, and other essential equipment.
30 TODAY’S TRUCKING
With the cost of a new rig creeping toward $300,000, the sticker
shock is real. There are other costs to consider.
Trump’s focus on energy production could drive the price of
oil down to $40 a barrel. Fantastic news when you consider the
impact of fuel on a truck’s total operating costs. Or maybe not, if
your customers benefit from high oil prices.
U.S. fleet advantage
Discrepancies in environmental regulations between the two
countries will add costs to Canadian fleets their U.S. coun-
terparts can avoid. U.S. fleets will also have the advantage of
extended corporate tax cuts and can invest some of those prof-
its into cleaner, greener fleet upgrades.
Reducing the carbon footprint may not be Trump’s priority,
but it’s still an issue for truck fleets. Customers are increasingly
committed to sustainability and prioritize service providers
using lower-emission vehicles. Canadian fleets with electric or
low-emission fleets can market themselves to customers on
both sides of the border. Being an environmentally friendly
transportation provider is more of a competitive advantage
than you might have first thought.
Nearshoring opportunity
The Republicans’ focus on “America First” policies will encour-
age manufacturers to invest in the U.S. or at least closer to home.
The demand to move cross-border freight efficiently should
benefit Canadian truckers, who have loads of connections and
experience. The ripple effects from new tariffs, increased energy
production, and less regulation in the U.S. will create a volatile
environment for cross-border trucking. But making stuff on this
side of the pond is still good for business.
The biggest threat yet
Bar none, starting Jan. 20, 2025, the biggest threat to Canada is
Donald’s disdain for Justin. It will do nothing but invite conflict.
I laughed my ass off when Trump called him a “two-faced, left-
wing lunatic.” Sad. But so very true.
The good news is Trudeau will be toast on or before next
October. Poilievre is our trump card in waiting. TT
Mike McCarron is president of Rite Route Supply Chain Solutions and a
partner in Left Lane Associates. You can reach Mike at mike@riteroute.ca.